Fuel ate the third quarter: US airline profit estimates versus what they reported

Analysts went into earnings season expecting only four US airlines to make money in the third quarter: Delta, United, Southwest and Alaska. Fuel is the reason. Five airlines have now reported. The scorecard below updates every estimate with the GAAP and adjusted results we can verify from each carrier's release.

The estimates#

The numbers below are analyst estimates of third-quarter net income, in millions of US dollars, from a proprietary research report. Figures in parentheses are losses.

Airline	Q3 estimate ($M)	Reports
Delta	1,325	Oct. 9 (reported)
United	935	Oct. 20 (reported)
Southwest	289	Oct. 22 (reported)
Alaska	42	Oct. 20 (reported)
Frontier	(7)	Oct. 28
Allegiant	(15)	Nov. 4
JetBlue	(189)	Oct. 27
American	(225)	Oct. 22 (reported)

Delta and United were expected to earn $2.26 billion between them. The other six were expected to lose a combined $105 million before American and Southwest reported.

Fuel: a cheap start, an expensive finish#

The quarter started with fuel prices relatively low, after a drop from the second-quarter highs. By the end of September, prices were more than 40% higher.

The US Energy Information Administration charted the swing. Brent crude futures opened the quarter at $72 a barrel on July 1. They passed $100 on July 23, peaked at $109 on September 15 and averaged about $104 in the last two weeks of September.

Refining made jet fuel costlier still. The EIA says crack spreads for distillate and jet fuel were almost triple their year-earlier levels.

Airline	Fuel cost per gallon
Frontier	$4.17 in Q2; guided $3.70 for Q3
Delta	$3.61 in Q3; about $4.25 guided for Q4
United	$3.90 in Q3, up 60.3% in a year
Southwest	$3.92 in Q3
American	$3.85 in Q3
Alaska	$4.65 to $4.85 guided for Q4

Delta and Alaska both expect to pay more per gallon in the fourth quarter than in the third. American guided about $4.70 a gallon for the fourth quarter. Southwest assumed about $4.55.

Results so far#

Airline	Estimate ($M)	GAAP net ($M)	Adjusted net ($M)
Delta	1,325	756	about 1,130
United	935	1,029	833
Alaska	42	(147)	49
Southwest	289	270	328
American	(225)	(269)	(182)

Each airline name links to its earnings release. Delta does not publish adjusted net income. We worked it out from its adjusted EPS of $1.72 and the share count implied by its GAAP results, so treat it as approximate. Alaska's adjusted figure excludes certain tax items; without that step, it lost $35 million.

Delta#

Delta's revenue rose 21.1% to a record $20.2 billion. Fuel expense rose 69.3% to $4.35 billion, and Delta says fuel cost more than $500 million above its July plan. Adjusted pre-tax income was $1.5 billion, the same as a year earlier. Premium ticket revenue rose 17.6% to $6.82 billion and now edges out main cabin. We covered the lounge angle in our Delta results story.

United#

United beat the estimate on GAAP profit by about $94 million and missed it on adjusted profit by about $102 million. Revenue rose 17.4% to $17.9 billion. Fuel expense rose 61.6% to $4.84 billion. Premium and loyalty revenue each grew 17%.

Alaska#

Alaska Air Group, which includes Hawaiian, beat the estimate by $7 million on its preferred adjusted measure. On a GAAP basis it lost $147 million. Revenue rose 14% to $4.3 billion.

Southwest#

Southwest reported GAAP net income of $270 million and adjusted net income of $328 million. That is a slight miss versus the $289 million estimate on GAAP and a beat on adjusted profit. Operating revenue hit a third-quarter record of $8.4 billion, up 21.2%. Average passenger fare jumped to $231.69, up 26.9% in a year, while revenue passengers carried fell 3.2%. Fuel cost $3.92 a gallon and added an $821 million expense headwind. We covered the fare jump in a separate story.

American#

American reported a GAAP net loss of $269 million and an adjusted net loss of $182 million, worse than the $225 million loss estimate on GAAP and better than that estimate on its adjusted measure. Total revenue was a record $16.3 billion, up 19.3%. Fuel expense rose $1.9 billion, or 67.5%, year over year. Premium revenue rose 22.9%. We covered the loss in our American results story.

Still to report#

JetBlue reports on October 27, Frontier on October 28 and Allegiant on November 4.

Frontier is the one to watch on fuel. In July it guided to $3.70 a gallon and adjusted EPS between a 10-cent loss and a 10-cent profit. That was before prices jumped in September.

What it means for travelers#

The airlines holding up best sell the most premium seats. Delta, United and American all posted strong premium revenue growth even as fuel erased GAAP profits at American and cut Delta's outlook. That income is what funds lounges and cabin upgrades.

Southwest showed that higher fares and record unit revenue can expand margins even with fewer passengers. Travelers feel that as bag fees, seat fees and a $231 average fare. Airlines still to report have less premium mix and more fuel risk. Watch JetBlue, Frontier and Allegiant for schedule cuts, fee changes or slower cabin plans when they report.

{{cite news |title=Fuel ate the third quarter: US airline profit estimates versus what they reported |url=https://www.loungefrog.com/news/us-airline-q3-2026-earnings-estimates-fuel-scorecard |work=Lounge Frog |author=Patrick Karsh |date=2026-10-21 |language=en}}

{
  "id": "https://www.loungefrog.com/news/us-airline-q3-2026-earnings-estimates-fuel-scorecard",
  "type": "article-newspaper",
  "title": "Fuel ate the third quarter: US airline profit estimates versus what they reported",
  "URL": "https://www.loungefrog.com/news/us-airline-q3-2026-earnings-estimates-fuel-scorecard",
  "container-title": "Lounge Frog",
  "language": "en",
  "author": [
    {
      "literal": "Patrick Karsh"
    }
  ],
  "issued": {
    "date-parts": [
      [
        2026,
        10,
        21
      ]
    ]
  }
}

<iframe src="https://www.loungefrog.com/embed/news/us-airline-q3-2026-earnings-estimates-fuel-scorecard?theme=auto" title="Fuel ate the third quarter: US airline profit estimates versus what they reported by Lounge Frog" width="100%" height="440" style="border:0;max-width:100%" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font-size:14px">Fuel ate the third quarter: US airline profit estimates versus what they reported by <a href="https://www.loungefrog.com/news/us-airline-q3-2026-earnings-estimates-fuel-scorecard" rel="nofollow">Lounge Frog</a></p>
<script async src="https://www.loungefrog.com/embed.js"></script>